China store can net dispatch: Carbon amounts to what peak carbon neutralizes strategic goal to put forward, let revolution of the sources of energy have clear and clear development route chart, also give transition of the sources of energy set overall schedule. Transition of structure of the sources of energy, can the proportion of second birth the sources of energy is being advanced ahead quickly ceaselessly.
Wind energy, solar energy is but the main component of second birth the sources of energy, but the fluctuation of wind-force and illumination and intermittence bring about wind-force to generate electricity to also have intermittence and fluctuation with Guang Fufa report, these but second birth the sources of energy cannot be produced continuously, with power system the requirement of tall stability does not match.
Right now, store can realize energy to cross store spatio-temporally and change, the action that urges wind energy, solar energy to move into net, stable electrified wire netting is highlighted come out. Store can the system can be in but in the rich campaign of second birth the sources of energy, the energy of will easy waste collects memory to rise, in the fastigium with energy exuberant demand, fill Gu Li to be used, the using that will enhance the sources of energy greatly greatly efficiency, reduce waste of the sources of energy. Accordingly, store can be but the ultimate solution of accept of disappear of second birth the sources of energy, of transition of structure of the sources of energy important one annulus.
Predict 2025, home store can market dimensions will achieve 60-70GWh, the whole world store can market dimensions is achieved make an appointment with 150-200GWh, growth makes an appointment with 10 times, market potential is tremendous. Current, wind-force and Guang Fufa report already became North America, Europe Africa of major, part, Australia, Saudi Arabia, China, India, Vietnam provides major, South America most socioeconomic new energy resources generates electricity means, the frequent promotion that new energy resources generates electricity is driven store can the development of the market, predicting batteries store can the system will maintain 35% years of compound increase rate to come 2030.
Revolution of the sources of energy of double carbon drive, store can welcome historic development chance. Compose builds new energy resources to become global consensus for the new-style power system of main body, store can in will participating in its as core link. Will integratedly look, the goal is neutralized in carbon how-to below, the whole world store can develop imperative, -727379968 markets are rising gradually.
Hard nucleus invests a viewpoint
1.The international market represented the market with higher profit margin, the market participates in level of square general profit margin pretty good, international market threshold is higher (product certification, channel, brand, capital, abroad group) . Affect as a result of what Russian black conflicts recently, abroad door with store can order increase sharply, because this is abroad,business is the near future a good business way. Need pays close attention to resource of the abroad setting of the group, channel mainly, products plan ability and brand force.
2.Home store can the market matchs compulsively in new energy resources store, share store can below the drive of foreground, a lot of companies join competition, show level to be in raw material cost is higher, store can the circumstance with not perfect still, intense competition finishs income model, store can systematic profit margin is general and inferior, predict to be mixed as fall after a rise of raw material cost store can economic model is improved (electrified wire netting assists price of electrovalency of cereal of service, peak to differ promotion) , profit margin hopeful improves the standard of 15-25% , user side store can advance IRR as peak cereal electrovalency and spot market reform more charming, more multitask is business the company with electric high cost is participated in.
3.Home store can the stability that the doorsill of the market includes electric core to measure is supplied, of electric core grind oneself the experience of ability and power industry and industry person arteries and veins, it is very important also to have better surveyor's pole outstanding achievement and safe record, share especially store can meet drive more high capacity store can project, capital actual strength and financing ability also are very important, the disorder that passes a trade especially period and shuffle period, have electric core and system the Capex that compositive need yield a line lasts invests.
4.Considering store can the foreground of the market, the investment way that can consider and strategy:
Appraise is worth capability of reasonable, group technique and business affairs ability more perfect store can systematic company
What overseas market does is relatively banner store can systematic company (abroad home store, shift store can wait)
The batteries technology company of lower cost (batteries of the ion that be like sodium)
Store can technical course
Chu Nenggen is heat according to the different cent of energy memory form store can, report store can, hydrogen store can 3 kinds. Tell from narrow sense, basically point to report commonly store can, also be current the mainest store can means.
Report store can be electrochemistry according to the different cent of memory principle store can, hot store can, hydrogen store can 3 kinds. Report store can be electrochemistry according to the different cent of memory principle store can, mechanical store can, electromagnetism store can 3 kinds.
Electrochemistry store can: Benefit chemically element is done store can medium, fill discharge process to accompany store can the chemical reaction of medium. The lithium ion battery that includes to take absolutely dominant place at present store can, sodium sulfur batteries, lead acerbity batteries and current batteries type of 4 kinds of mainstreams. Electrochemistry store can small to situation limitation, construction is periodic extensive, energy changes short, applicability efficiency is tall (especially lithium battery store can) , cost drops potential is great; 2018 since outfit machine dimensions grows quickly, nearly 5 annual and compound increase rate are amounted to 84.8% .
Mechanical store can: Use water, air to wait as store can medium, do work through rigid structure, those who achieve pair of electric power store, release and manage, fill discharge process store can medium does not produce chemical change. Applied form has pump water harbour can, compress air store can mix flywheel store can. At present the most mature large-scale store can means is pump water harbour can. Pump water harbour because technical maturity, cost is inferior,can take the lead in popularizing inside global limits, 2000-2020 year take labor store can dimensions of machine of accumulative total outfit is occupied than exceeding 90% . But suffer situation of be confined to and construction cycle to grow wait for a condition to restrict, and energy changeover efficiency makes an appointment with 70%-75% only, add fast glide stage by stage.
Electromagnetism store can: Include superconduction store can, super capacitor store can wait. Among them, superconduction store can be to use what the resistor of superconductor makes for 0 character to store the device of electric energy, its can store in ground of bad news of the nondestructive inside superconductor inductance coil not only electric energy, still can change through electric power electron stream implement have rendered great service of as sudden as outside system switch and without result power, use at raising power system stability, improvement power supply character.
Store can actually very the concept of the memory in resembling computer network, carry there are a variety of technologies to coexist below use scene in what differ, want the size of the speed that the basis answers and memory, correspondingly different technique goes applicable and different setting.
From whole store can be for the system with pump water harbour can applied setting is tone peak, frequency modulation and reserve power source, occupy comparing is highest.
new-style store can category, answer from density of circular time or life, efficiency, working hours, energy, noise of setting of time, application and development phase wait for dimension to spend integrated contrast to look, density of lithium battery energy changeover efficiency is tall, tall, answer speed fast, integral performance is better. 2021 our country electrochemistry store can install in machine, lithium ion batteries is occupied than be as high as 89.7% , it is at present the technology matures quite, development impetus is most swift and violent store can means.
Lithium ion batteries basically is given priority to with lithium of phosphoric acid iron, at present the cycling life of the battery of lithium of phosphoric acid iron of the mainstream can be achieved 6, 000 to 10, 000, it is about 10 arrive 15 years.
Additional, develop and produce of the technology as a result of dynamical cell can promotion, also make lithium ionic batteries cost drops further, so lithium battery more and more approach store can invest acceptability cost line.
Besides lithium battery technology, electrochemistry store can medium still additionally two are worth to pay close attention to very much store can technology, the first is sodium batteries store can, another is current batteries.
As lithium price climb litre, the advantage highlighted the BOM cost with character of the security of ionic batteries, low temperature, life, integrated natrium to come out. Sodium ion batteries is in large-scale store can, motor-car of low speed report can get comparative wide application, and sodium ion batteries going up from cost have an advantage, so sodium ion batteries can be formed with lithium battery complementary perhaps supersede function.
Compare since current batteries near future fervent. With lithium ion batteries photograph is compared, current batteries is the biggest the advantage is security long, electrolyte can use taller, cycling life circularly, lifecycle sex price is more friendly than tall, environment wait for a lot of advantage, be considered as large-scale store can one of first selection technologies of the technology, have wide applied perspective. But the problem of current batteries depends on energy density namely inferior. Batteries of complete vanadium current is current course of the most mature a technology, dan Fan also is rare metal, if say the amount on prospective dimensions, also can fear meeting faces the problem that raw material price goes up like lithium battery inside the industry. In light of instantly, every watt-hour cost makes an appointment with batteries of complete vanadium current 4 yuan, and lithium battery is 2 yuan about, at present so current batteries still is the demonstrative project that covers with tiles with Yu Baizhao.
Store can downstream application setting and economy analysis
Store setting of can downstream application basically can be divided to generate electricity side of side, electrified wire netting, user side.
Generate electricity side: Generate electricity side is more serious is the production that marries electric power, because report of smooth hot season, wind has a fluctuation, can bring very big impact to electrified wire netting. So store can generating electricity side basically removes auxiliary trends to move, flowing generate electricity exert oneself, decrease abandon wind to abandon the action such as light.
This also is new energy resources matchs compulsively store requirement. Up to now, the whole nation already had 21 provincial canton to be in complete province or area of city county class to add new energy resources newly clearly to generate electricity of the project match store scale and match store when long.
From the point of economy, because electric core cost rose considerably 2022, bring about our country store can systematic cost rises to 1.6 yuan - 1.9 yuan / Wh, prep above 1.5-1.6 yuan / Wh balances a dot for profit and loss, home market to generating electricity side invests, only report of smooth hot season, wind generates electricity IRR asks to be in 8% the left and right sides, match store hind IRR is in 6%-7% , yield drops further. So, generate electricity the form that side adopts compulsive attach is actual was to raise cost.
Side of electrified wire netting: Store can alleviate in the main use of side of electrified wire netting block of electrified wire netting, defer be defeated by look of distribution facilities enlarge to upgrade, frequency modulation of power shift peak, system (AGC) , reserve the capacity, as enlarge look device and mothball device alleviate circuit block, increase transformer substation stability.
In frequency modulation respect, lithium battery store can profitability advantage is distinct. At present lithium of phosphoric acid iron store can the cost of course of development of the power station already can fall to less than of MW of 6 yuan of ／ , at present home basically compensates the price to be in 5-8 yuan / MW, have equality to participate in power market to serve trading competition ability, frequency modulation already had economy.
In the respect that move a peak, at present the cost per kilowatt hour of the electricity generated by WECS of lithium battery is 0.59 yuan / KWh, the subsidy price of domestic exchange peak with 0.4-0.6 yuan / KWh is given priority to. As lithium battery cost reduce ceaselessly, capacity of cycling life promotion, batteries increases, lithium report store can cost per kilowatt hour of the electricity generated by WECS will still be reduced continuously, economy continues hopeful to rise.
User side: Store implementation of user of can main help cuts a peak to fill cereal or smooth hot season the mode such as initiative for private use, can make the user reduces expenditure of charge of electricity. From the point of this angle, the commercial pattern of user side is the clearest, because cut a peak,fill cereal to be able to produce economic benefits.
User side store can can fractionize is industry and commerce store can with door with store can apply big kinds two, among them industry and commerce store basically can be independent store can power station, enterprise of help industry and commerce undertakes peak cereal price needs an advantage, accrual and difference of price of cereal of each district peak are relevant, be in the province with bigger difference of kind of electrovalency of cereal of peak of industry and commerce, be like Guangdong, Hainan, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, industry and commerce store already can have economy.
Door with store basically can be with new energy resources form a complete set of establishment of Guang Fufa report is used, implementation family uses phone initiative for private use, accrual at user electrovalency relevant. Domestic dweller electrovalency is in for a long time low, the initiative that the dweller installs system of smooth hot season is limited, door with store can demand also is affected accordingly. Predict door with store can will long-term with abroad give priority to.
Electrochemistry store can industrial catenary
Store can industry advanced position reachs equipment provider for batteries raw material, include batteries management system, energy management system (EMS) , batteries group, store can converter (PCS) etc.
Middle reaches includes store can the system is compositive reach installation business. The system is compositive involved electric equipment is more, professional stronger and existence is corresponding systematic design, compositive reach the link such as installation.
It is applied end downstream, applied setting basically can be divided to generate electricity side, be defeated match side / side of electrified wire netting, user side.
Batteries group: Store can energy core of the system, be in charge of the memory of electric energy. Store can the main player of electric core includes two kinds of companies, one kind is peaceful heart times, Guo Xuan lithium of Gao Ke, 100 million abb can, the business of dynamical lithium battery such as force god batteries; 2 it is in relief the sources of energy of fierce lion science and technology, emperor from plumbic acid batteries switch reachs the industry of lithium battery domain.
Position of electric core company store can the doorsill of systematic existence technology and client. On the technology, store can the system divides the knowledge that the domain of electronic electric power such as pair of electrified wire netting, smooth hot season also needs outside batteries, not be factory of traditional report core is long; Client respect, client of downstream electrified wire netting, generate electricity the enterprise has certain boycott to domain of intervening electric power of plant of traditional report core.
Batteries management system (BMS) the perceptive core that is a system, main and responsible batteries is monitored, evaluate and protection and balanced etc, safeguard store can unit safety moves, form batteries system together with electric core.
Energy management system (EMS) the control core that is a system, main and responsible data is collected, network monitoring, energy attempers etc.
Store can converter (PCS) the decision-making core that is a system, main and responsible control fills discharge process, undertake making the shift of dc. Already can store can the dc inversion in batteries is alternating current, carry to electrified wire netting; Also can be commutate of the alternating current in electrified wire netting dc, to store can the system charges. Current main player is inverter enterprise, use the technology that be the same as a source to be cut store can inverter market, devin of source of the photoelectricity that be like this world, solid, go up can electric etc; 2 it is enterprise of UPS power source, wait like division Hua Hengcheng, Keshida.
Technology of PCS and inverter of smooth hot season is the same as likeness of height of source, structure, because manufacturer of inverter of smooth hot season is had commonly,supply store can the ability of converter, and already had position of technology, channel, predicting future store can converter will continue pattern of inverter of smooth hot season. Power source of inverter bibcock sunshine, division China is counted can, on can electric, Keshida shipment volume is at present banner.
The system is compositive: The participator with at present compositive system basically has 3 kinds of companies:
Setting of electric power electron / enterprise of setting of smooth hot season: Appear on the market the company has division China to count can, sunshine power source, its advantage depends on 1) can make full use of the experience that its accumulate in industry of smooth hot season and built component sell system of channel, service, smooth store the client's coincide more be helpful for developing the market 2) electric power of deep know well controls a technology, stronger to the ability of design research and development of batteries 3S system; Inferior position is collected outside be depended on at electric core, it is difficult that cost drops.
Electric core business: Appear on the market the company includes peaceful heart times, Biyadi to wait, the advantage is making batteries and BMS experience at low cost, inferior position depends on generating electricity to understand inadequacy with character of electrified wire netting to scene, product cannot completely comfortable match client need.
Enterprise of setting of electrified wire netting: Among them Haibosai is achieved undertaking appearing on the market preparative. The advantage depends on rich product application and project carry out experience and client natural resources, inferior position depends on lacking core technology segment to grind to produce ability oneself oneself.
Hard nucleus is round-table
This period hard nucleus observation, we invite China technically to be able to establish a group store the Liu Lili of reporter of sina finance and economics of industry of energy of technologist Chu Pan, can long-term attention, with benefit of Lin Jialiang of investor of big peaceful fund, Liu Kai, discuss deep together store can the problem that did not solve. It is discussion detail below:
1, new-style store can harbour of VS pump water can: Of fast growth new-style store can industry when can true " play the leading role " ?
Chu Pan: Pump water harbour can be mixed new-style store can growth is very rapid, will look from absolutely increment, pump water harbour can absolutely increment is a few bigger now. From add fast on in light of, new-style store can add fast bigger.
The installed capacity that pump water harbour already can build exceeded 40GW, in the 60GW left and right sides that build, predicted to be able to increase 8-10 again 2022 GW; New-style store can meet probably this year increase 5 to 6 GW (probably 12-15GWh) , new-style store can increment not as good as pump water harbour can, but new-style store can labor of increasing ratio pump water can be bigger.
After all who can just play the leading role? Want to be analysed from a few respects, have the advantage that differs severally and inferior position severally.
In the demand of power system, the primary principle of power system is a balance. In the level that move a peak, current main force still is pump water harbour can. The misunderstanding that everybody may exist is, pump water harbour can main function is tone peak, do not mean one have the demand that move a peak to call pump water harbour immediately can. Actually, what want play above all is the flexibility of power system oneself, go up commonly can attemper first igneous report, gas electricity, water and electricity waits these aircrew a moment to participate in tone peak, after the ability moving a peak that waits for convention is extinct, just can call pump water harbour can. The characteristic of pump water function is installed capacity big, medium pump water harbour can the power station covers with tiles in 1200 million above, in addition, store can time is longer, grow when in 8 to 10 hours. Peak of the attune inside day needs 6 to 8 hours, pump water Chu Nengfei often accords with the demand that the peak moves inside day. The power demand of peak of attune of electrified wire netting is very big, the increase and decrease of kilowatt of a few ten million is very common, with other store can form, achieve the demand moving a peak of electrified wire netting hard temporarily.
Power system besides macroscopical balance -- besides tone peak, still put in microcosmic balance, it is frequency modulation. The power when frequency modulation needs store can, effect time is shorter, but power change is bigger, changeover rate is rapidder. In frequency modulation when, electrified wire netting asks the trends of power is balanced, to the demand of power, a certain hour is, leaving a hour is negative. This to store can for the power station, with respect to need it undertakes charging / discharge, again and again undertakes high frequency second fill / discharge. Frequency modulation service continues the word of fractionize, cent is frequency modulation and 2 frequency modulation. Frequency modulation needs to be finished inside 1 minute, 2 times frequency modulation is in commonly 5-15 is finished inside minute. Of frequency modulation fill discharge frequency to be in probably 2000-3000 second / day, 2 frequency modulation probably 400-600 second / day, very frequent.
Be based on frequency modulation this kind short when inside the characteristic that charges discharge often, ask to changing rate at the same time very tall also, use a convention store can means, for instance pump water harbour can, compress air store can be improper. It is better to can finish frequency modulation can finish frequency modulation at present head push electrochemistry store can, the electrochemistry that is based on lithium battery especially store can.
Electrochemistry store can for must, use at 2 frequency modulation more appropriate. Of frequency modulation fill discharge time more frequent, with electrochemistry store not quite can appropriate. If use lithium battery to undertake frequency modulation forcibly, of lithium battery store can the system can appear to run a risk certainly, so frequency modulation does not choose lithium battery system commonly, and meeting apt chooses power model flywheel store can technical course.
Liu Lili: Opposite at pump water harbour can, electrochemistry store can economy, flexibility, store can characteristic applicability is strong, generating electricity the side of side, electrified wire netting, side that use phone can produce effect.
Those who deserve attention is the breakthrough of sodium ion batteries and solid state batteries. Density of energy of sodium ion batteries is inferior, but cost drops range is big, security is high, in - 40 ℃ can work normally to 80 ℃ , fill fold quickly tall, have fill can advantage, charge speed is mixed than battery of 3 yuan of lithium batteries of phosphoric acid Tie Li is fast, hopeful replaces plumbic acid and battery of lithium of phosphoric acid iron advocate hit open stop, motor-car of low speed report, store can wait for the market.
"Solid state batteries " have higher energy density and security, prospective development space is very large.
Will 2. lithium battery be in long inside be in " carry handle " position?
Lin Jialiang: The position that I think lithium carries handle is very difficult shake. Lithium price is too expensive the form that also can adopt batteries of compensatory natrium ion goes stablizing the price, perhaps be in upper reaches also can have better excessive price capacity this piece. Sodium ion batteries is in at present store can the application of the respect has not entered dimensions quantity to produce level, 23 years sodium ion batteries is in the direction that faces dynamical cell application begins to realize progressively implementation quantity to produce, 24 years 25 annual meeting form massive amount to produce.
Liu Lili: The position of lithium battery, won't have inside short time too about-face, this cycle may last 10 years or so.
Chu Pan: Will look at present, 945 reach 955 during, lithium battery (pump water harbour can besides) , be in the position that carries handle. Above all, lithium battery store can circular efficiency of the system is all store can inside technical course highest. Next, speed of the technical characteristic that lithium battery charges discharge, changeover and big fold fill the ability that the ability of discharge, fast dimensions influences, it is all at present store the can most outstanding in technical course. tripartite face is, lithium battery store can of the system investment also has definite advantage first.
Lithium battery store the advantage that can still one is highlighted, come from advanced system of lithium battery research and development, the data that can depend on as the emulation of lithium battery and imitate is increasing, the iteration of the positive electrode material of lithium battery, electrolyte, developmental rate is rapidder and rapidder, these get rid of the stale and bring forth the fresh that give lithium battery the product were brought very big help strength, of battery of new fund lithium rolling out speed is Yuan Chao other store can new product of the technology.
In the meantime, lithium battery is in the level that high speed develops now, although the near future got lithium of upriver material, carbonic acid, electrolyte rise in price influence, cost is higher, but long-term will see the price interval with can restore normal. Lithium battery is in fast development phase now (the likelihood is the fastest phase on the history) , the yield that is lithium battery on one hand can be bigger and bigger, the quality that is lithium battery on the other hand is better and better, the lithium battery service life of brand of a gleam of has arrived 8000 times, to 2030 circular time can be amounted to 15000 times, it is taller even. The consistency that 3 o'clock is lithium battery, the abhorrent sex of lithium battery is in before probably 3-5% , the abhorrent sex of lithium battery can be accomplished now 1% lower even, future is OK pilot is more accurate.
The consistency of electric core the influence to electric core is very big, if the consistency of core of a report is taller, so the electrochemistry that is based on this report core to be able to be done store can systematic dimensions can bigger, moving safety of the system has safeguard more, moving efficiency also is met taller. If the abhorrent sex of electric core compares old saying, it is to be able to affect the n that charges discharge actually, final meeting affects integral cycling life.
3. vanadium report store can you be true trend or false a place with a draught?
Liu Lili: Vanadium battery market whether erupt, still depend on the influence of a variety of elements. From the point of technical economy, it is to have advantages and disadvantages each.
Vanadium mine of China is resourceful, vanadium almost 100% can reclaim use, security of batteries of complete vanadium current is higher, can pass add electrolyte augment capacity, but energy density is inferior, volume is large, the 3-5 that bulk of batteries of same energy vanadium may be lithium battery times, setting of not applicable and small-sized job. Cost of vanadium batteries electrolyte is at present higher, and change as precious metal futures apparent. Data shows, vanadium batteries installs the 2 times above that cost is lithium ion batteries probably at the beginning of now. Because this vanadium batteries suits high capacity quite long store the setting that can move a peak, facilitating booth thin cost.
As a whole, vanadium batteries store still can be in large-scale commercialized night before last. Prospective development returns progress of hang on technology, capital enter, produce can dilate and electrolyte rent those who wait for commercial pattern to advance.
Lin Jialiang: Quan Fan now is an a place with a draught, current batteries suffers capital market to pay close attention to quite now, a lot of supply catenary to go up relevant investment opportunity, the proton exchange film that includes diaphragmatic, proton to exchange film, its proton to exchange film to follow hydrogenous fuel cell is basically special and similar, so this is worth to consider.
But Quan Fan is the biggest the problem is vanadium price too expensive, if say cost of cost of batteries of current of 1GW complete vanadium is very high, this is a problem actually. 2 it is vanadium rarer than lithium be short of, if raw material rises in price,did not come, go up to what degree to be forecasted very hard also. This technology course I think the difference on the market is very big, it is these a few reasons probably.
Chu Pan: My individual considers as a brief a place with a draught, the reserve strength with enough lack with latent capacity.
Because vanadium batteries is like below a few defect, the project cost of the a bitth its unit kilowatt hour is close to 4000 yuan, double of the lithium battery that is coequal dimensions almost. So, do what when dimensions of a coequal dimensions is mixed, grow store can system, batteries of the current that use vanadium should spend times more money. Only for initiative investment, the project of vanadium batteries is differred with respect to the project yield of the batteries that compare lithium many.
The 2nd problem is the efficiency of vanadium batteries system. The cause of a lot of information that we see on the net says efficiency can be accomplished 70% , it is taller even, it is impracticable actually. In a real moving environment, the practical cycle efficiency of vanadium batteries, it is probably 60% the left and right sides. In light of now, the circular efficiency of vanadium batteries is the mainstream likely store can of the lowest in technical course one of, another is to compress air, compress airy loop efficiency to be in probably 58% to 62% . Pump water harbour can efficiency is taller, 75% above. Will look from efficiency, vanadium batteries store can system hard satisfactory, he Li batteries store can systematic photograph is compared, its efficiency became low nearly 30 percent.
The 3rd problem is the carry dimension cost of vanadium current batteries. The lithium battery of above of a hundred watt-hour store can power station, annual carry dimension cost (contain personnel cost) probably in every watt-hour 4 minutes of money are controlled, every watt-hour is in current batteries 78 minutes about buck is faster even. When moving because of current batteries, the requirement to the environment is taller, interval of its environment of optimal moving temperature is 35 degrees arrive 40 Celsius, if exceeded this interval, so the 5 oxidation in the electrolyte of vanadium current batteries 2 vitriol will crystallize separate out, after separate out will the proton inside drug report caboodle exchanges film, can jam passageway, change the cost that exchanges film is higher. Electrolyte occupies the 50-60% of cost of system of batteries of whole vanadium current, change the expenses of electrolyte also is higher.
Be based on above at 3 o'clock, the 1.5-2 that the initiative investment of vanadium current batteries is lithium battery times, efficiency compares lithium battery low 25%-30% , carry dimension cost arrives 1.5 times higher than lithium battery again 2 times, will integratedly look, 3-4 inside year, vanadium current batteries store very can difficult competitive.
The opportunity is in:
1, applied be born is clear: Store is can real investment opportunity in?
Lin Jialiang: Euramerican Japan market represented the market with higher profit margin, the market participates in level of square general profit margin pretty good, the international market is in the threshold of product certification, channel, brand, capital, abroad group is higher. Recently the influence as a result of Russian black war, abroad door with store can order increase sharply, because this is abroad,business is the near future a good business way. Need pays close attention to resource of the abroad setting of the group, channel mainly, products plan ability and brand force.
Home store can the market matchs compulsively in new energy resources store, share store can below the drive of foreground, a lot of companies join competition, competition is more intense, show level to be in raw material cost is higher, store can the circumstance with not perfect still, intense competition finishs income model, store can systematic profit margin is general and inferior (5-10% gross profit) , predict to be mixed as fall after a rise of raw material cost store can economic model improvement, include electrified wire netting to assist price of electrovalency of cereal of service, peak to differ promotion, profit margin hopeful improves the standard of 15-25% , user side store can advance IRR as peak cereal electrovalency and spot market reform more charming, more multitask is business the company with electric high cost is participated in.
Home store can the stability that the doorsill of the market includes electric core to measure is supplied, of electric core grind oneself the experience of ability and power industry and industry resource, having better surveyor's pole outstanding achievement and safe record also is very important, share especially store can meet drive more high capacity store can project, capital actual strength and financing ability also are very important, the disorder that passes a trade especially period and shuffle period, have electric core and system the Capex that compositive need yield a line lasts invests.
2. store can lithium battery: Is entering the arena now still inning?
Liu Lili: The market still has an opportunity. The need on the product of lithium battery and technology has poor dissimilation, otherwise if, although the enterprise is short-term can put subsist, but will for a long time look, the time will be harder.
3. system is compositive business: Circuit jam, of player of industrial catenary middle reaches how to kill a the Red Sea?
Liu Lili: The system is compositive also have two levels. It is ESS compositive, do PACK, RACK, till ESS, core is technical innovation and product innovation. Want to realize more efficient, safe, reliable, macrobian life, low cost per kilowatt hour of the electricity generated by WECS. 2 be store can power station system is compositive, the key is whether accomplish the confluence between all sorts of equipment, especially the energy management algorithm with efficient intelligence needs to promote continuously.
1. commercializes predicament to need solution: Store can you be a profitable business?
Liu Lili: Current, industry and commerce store basically can differ charge of electricity of a benefit, capacity to cut down through peak cereal price answer with demand wait for means to gain profit, economy basically comes from cereal of accept of disappear of Yu Xinneng source, peak to cover over-the-counter trading of benefit, requirement management, electric power, electric power to assist the respect such as the service.
From investment return rate looks, the economy such as Jiang Zhe, Guangdong, Shandong developeds the area is the area with apparent difference of electrovalency of industry and commerce, user side store can the investment redound cycle of the project is centered in 5-7 year.
Industry and commerce store can market demand is huge but competitive pattern had be notted open in the round, prospective 2-3 year will greet new industry and commerce ceaselessly store can brand, whole is in erupt overnight. Industry and commerce store can the bid that hopeful makes industrial production and large trade group matchs.
A what trade pattern can 2. future develop?
Liu Kai benefit: Independent store can be attemper with electric power directly with identity of independent main body the orgnaization is signed and the net attempers agreement, do not accept positional restriction. To it opposite is to rely on new energy resources to generate electricity project / form a complete set of project of igneous power plant builds store can project, service object is single power station only, commercial pattern is promotion electricenergy production.
Independent store can income source photograph is compared at the tradition store can the project is more yuan change. Share renting is core earnings source. Be in charge of dimension of investment, carry by tripartite or manufacturer, serve as rental square will store can systematic power and capacity rent power station of new energy resources with commodity form power station of new energy resources is serving enjoy inside time limit store can fill discharge influence, need not build independently store can power station, considerably original capital throws the bring down.
It is merchandise on hand covers interest next, independent store can the power station can choose to share frequency modulation market independently or electric energy market. In electric energy market, store can power station " newspaper quantity does not quote " , in safety of contented electrified wire netting stability moves and the condition of accept of disappear of new energy resources falls preferential go out clear. In frequency modulation market, store can power station beard and generation set are the same as stage contest price to become independent store can power station to power transmission of electrified wire netting, its charge accordingly n is not assumed be defeated by distribution price and governmental sex fund to reach add. It is with Shandong market exemple, decrease about store can 0.1-0.2 of power station cost per kilowatt hour of the electricity generated by WECS yuan / KWh. 3 it is auxiliary service, the new edition detailed rules of print and distribute of superintendency bureau of southern the sources of energy defined 13 kinds paid type of service, promotion is independent store can amend a standard, perfect and independent Chu Nengying profit pattern. 4 it is capacity electrovalency, construction of electrochemistry power station is convenient, adjust performance is superior, national policy direction is electrochemistry store can push as far as possible go gaining profit to power market, capacity electrovalency is electrochemistry only store can accrual " keep a copy " method.
Chu Pan: The first kind, I think to be shared at present store can be very main trade pattern, the need of the existence that shares Chu Nengmo type of course a premise, namely should new energy resources matchs by force store can policy, just can have share store can such demand.
Share now store can have evolved into independence store can the phase of the power station. Construction is independent store can power station, in order to share store can mode goes moving. Share store can project, have the profit that the capacity rents, have independence store can the profit that the power station shares power spot market, have the profit that shares electric power to assist service market, perhaps some of place has profit of capacity electrovalency compensatory. Its accrual channel is increasing, stabler and stabler also, and present the state that rises stage by stage, sharing Chu Nengmo type so is future store can the pattern of a kind of trade with very main item.
Additionally one kind of trade pattern that I value quite, be side of industry and commerce store can project. They basically depend on peak cereal to differ a benefit to come benefit. Will look from development trend, difference of current peak cereal price is bigger and bigger, as the ceaseless development that power market reforms, cancelled catalog electrovalency early or late, cancelled time-sharing electrovalency again, electrovalency more and more return to its original commodity essence, the height electrovalency in power demand is more and more expensive, the trough electrovalency in demand is lower and lower, the occurrence of these trends special be helpful for industry and commerce store can the development of the project. Prospective industry and commerce store can of the market add fast, increment the metropolis is greater and greater. I value pattern of these two kinds of trade quite, their metropolis is long-standing.
3. how is rational look upon current store can overmeasure value?
Lin Jialiang: This year really store estimate of can relevant company is worth really on the high side, this kind of heat has two respects reason. Reason of a respect is everybody is opposite store can the anticipation that high speed grows, there are a few on hand of a lot of enterprises 100 million very consummate the order of one billion four hundred and ten million and sixty-five thousand four hundred and eight, future may erupt at high speed in the posture of growth. But this within if store can the system has a few 100 million, the likelihood contained batteries to be in within, net profit margin is lower, the probability is not high when calculating net benefit finally so.
Instantly is the periodic phase that tall scene bearing rises, future as the technology more and more mature, the competitor is increasing, prospective PE drops should be incident of a big probability.UZ Energy energy storage company energy storage companies