China store can net dispatch: Store can the development of the industry by the market and policy two respects are driven, main body by store can cast those representing capital and policy to make square decision. Policy makes the construction that just considers transition of the sources of energy and new-style power system, drive actively store can the development of the market, and store what can cast those representing capital to care most is store can economic gains, our country is at present large store can applied setting basically matchs for scene store, the auxiliary service such as frequency modulation, independence is shared store can, industry and commerce store can.
Scene matchs store: The cost of new energy resources that policy matchs pressure by force to fall
Whole of pressure of accept of disappear of countrywide new energy resources gets ameliorative. "925 " earlier, pressure of accept of disappear of countrywide new energy resources is greater, whole abandons wind to abandon smooth rate taller, abandon wind rate 201 years to amount to among them 19% , subsequently our country takes construction of new-style power system seriously, solve ability of accept of disappear of new energy resources, abandon wind to abandon smooth rate to get clear improvement.
Pressure of accept of disappear of new energy resources presents the state that area splits up. Specific and divisional region looks, natural resources of scene of China north, northwest, northeast area is sufficient, it is the main construction area of project of scene of large part Chinese style. By the whole nation accept of disappear of new energy resources monitors central data, abandoned wind to abandon smooth phenomenon to basically be centered in these 3 areas 2021, its China north, northwest, northeast abandons wind rate to be respectively 1.9% , 5.8% , 0.9% , the rate that abandon light is respectively 6.2% , 5.2% , 2.9% .
Scene matchs store scale area become divided, limits is 10-20% commonly. In light of the whole nation, scene project matchs store become rigid target basically, match store the 10%-20% that scale installs machine scale for project of new energy resources commonly; Cent area looks, northeast, China north, China area of part of medium, northwest matchs store proportion is higher, unconscious area smooth hot season matchs inside store scale requirement 20-30% . Pressure of accept of disappear of new energy resources is greater, machine of outfit of new energy resources feed rate is rapidder, match store proportion is higher, for instance Shandong jujube village is Shandong what the province belongs to area city exclusively to bring into entire county housetop entirely the city with pilot development of distributed smooth hot season, match store scale is as high as 15-30% .
New energy resources of policy pressure overlay is occupied than increasing, match store scale hopeful promotion. Project of new energy resources has stronger policy to match pressure by force, our country takes circumstance of accept of disappear of new energy resources seriously, generate electricity to new energy resources weight of disappear accept responsibility is finished not the province of beautiful notice of criticism. According to bureau of national energy resources about 2021 but the bulletin of in finished state of weight of responsibility of accept of disappear of electric power of second birth the sources of energy, partial area if the province such as Xinjiang, Gansu Province because disappear accept is half-baked index and be criticized in the bulletin. Machine of outfit of new energy resources promotes ceaselessly, fluctuant and flowing difficulty increases power of new energy resources, because this tomorrow is new,machine of outfit of the sources of energy promotes ceaselessly, match store scale also Xiang Darong quantifies development. New energy resources of policy pressure overlay installs machine promotion, the new energy resources of each province matchs store scale hopeful promotion.
Scene matchs store accrual comes from lead at promoting disappear offer, increase generate electricity and net income. Cast those representing capital at project of new energy resources and character, wind light intensity matchs store can accrual basically comes from at increasing need accept is led, be equivalent to raising benefit to be counted with Xiaoshi, rate of pay of disappear of most area scene is 90% above, because this matchs store extent of promotion of disappear pay rate is not tall.
We are opposite respectively wind report / project of smooth hot season is done respectively do not deserve store can / match store can economy is calculated.
Wind report and match store core is as follows suppose:
1, outfit machine dimensions is 200MW, annual interest is 2300 hours with small duration;
2, investment of wind cable unit is 5.7 yuan / W, own reserves scale is 30% ;
3, online electrovalency is 0.37 yuan / KWh;
4, store can unit investment is 1.75 yuan / Wh, batteries changes cycle is 10 years.
Smooth hot season and match store core is as follows suppose:
1, outfit machine dimensions is 50MW, annual interest is 1300 hours with small duration;
2, investment of unit of smooth hot season is 4.4 yuan / W, own reserves scale is 30% .
3, online electrovalency is 0.37 yuan / KWh;
4, store can unit investment is 1.75 yuan / Wh, batteries changes cycle is 10 years.
Scene matchs store the cost that is scene project, pull yield of low whole interior to make an appointment with 1pct. Scene matchs store earnings pattern is onefold, and online electrovalency is relatively inferior, match store without economy. Do not configure store can yield of interior of wind cable project is 9.5% , project of smooth hot season is 6.2% ; Build configuration oneself of 10% store can below the circumstance, yield of interior of wind cable project reduces 1.3pct, project of smooth hot season reduces 1.4pct. Hypothesis is other the condition is changeless, chu Nengcheng needs drop originally reach 0.75 yuan / ability brings profit for scene project under Wh.
Economy drive scene matchs store project depress cost, store can function sells at a discount greatly. Cast those representing capital to project of new energy resources, economy is the oldest changing is will store can project cost falls to lowest, from store can dog with power market in October 2022 of the portion store can in light of the project, new energy resources matchs store win the bid price photograph is more inferior than other companies, new energy resources matchs store the project increases advantageous position average quoted price is 1.43 yuan / Wh, and independent store can mix user side store can increase advantageous position average quoted price is 1.88 yuan respectively / Wh mixes 2.07 yuan / Wh. New energy resources matchs store control cost, photograph of core of the equipment that purchase, report is otherer setting store can poorer, accordingly store can function sells at a discount greatly, basis " new energy resources matchs store can run case investigation report " data, below high cost pressure, partial project chose property cost of poorer, investment is inferior store can product, raised safe hidden danger. 2022 1-8 month, countrywide electrochemistry store can project blame plans to stop machine achieve 329 times.
Share Chu Nengcheng to match for new energy resources store compromise proposal. Share store can be by tripartite investor establishs large independence store can project, investment of project of new energy resources just can pass the independence that rent store can partial capacity will satisfy policy to match a requirement by force, pay independence every year store the can certain expenses that rent. Cast those representing capital to project of new energy resources for, the capacity rents charge to pay every year, reduced the cash with initiative huge investment to shed pressure; To sharing store can cast those representing capital for, independent store can the earnings pattern of the power station is more, investment return rate is higher. Because this is rented,share store can the trend that mode makes project of new energy resources satisfy policy to match a requirement by force.
New energy resources is rented share Chu Nengcheng this pressure drops, share store can demand hopeful promotes quickly. We are rented to new energy resources share store can in-house yield is calculated, parameter of project of bend over of wind light produced by electricity is changeless, the charge that rent is 300 yuan suppose / KW* year. Matching store scale falls for the circumstance of 10% , IRR of wind cable project drops 0.1pct (build oneself store can drop 1.2pct) , IRR of project of smooth hot season drops 0.9pct (build oneself store can drop 1.1pct) , pressure of scene project cost decreases. Scale of machine of wind report outfit is larger, investment is larger, share store the cash that can reduce initiative investment effectively to cause flows pressure and cost pressure, accrual promotion is accordingly apparent, share store can demand hopeful rises quickly.
Industry and commerce store can: Poor sensitivity of peak cereal price is tall, pay close attention to relevant policy be born
Industry and commerce store can earnings pattern is differred for peak cereal price a benefit and increase proportion of for private use of smooth hot season. Industry and commerce store can mix abroad door store earnings pattern is similar, cent is:
1) save charge of electricity through increasing proportion of for private use of smooth hot season. If enterprise of industry and commerce builds power station of distributed smooth hot season, configuration store can OK will use at originally and the report of the net stores for private use, increase proportion of for private use of Guang Fufa electricity;
2) difference of peak cereal price covers interest. The electrovalency when cereal is inferior, store can charge; The electrovalency when the peak is taller, store can discharge. Difference of peak cereal price is bigger, gains is better. Our country policy is advanced enlarge difference of peak cereal price, partial province is like Guangdong, Zhejiang, Inner Mongolia, Heibei to wait carry out aiguille electrovalency, enlarge difference of peak cereal price further.
The difference of price of cereal of peak of industry and commerce of each province is different, industry and commerce store can economic benefits difference is bigger. The electrovalency of each province is different, price of cereal of peak of and other places of Beijing, Guangdong, Hubei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang is poor bigger, more than 0.74 yuan / KWh, among them the difference of peak cereal price of Beijing exceeds 1 yuan / KWh, the industry and commerce because of this above area store can poor gains of peak cereal price is bigger. The difference of peak cereal price of and other places of Yunnan, Guangxi is inferior, economy is general poorer.
We calculate industry and commerce store can in-house yield is 5.3% . Model core is as follows suppose:
1, store can install machine dimensions to be 1MWh; Move every year 330 days; Batteries changes cycle is 8 years
2, store can unit investment is 1.75 yuan / Wh, own reserves scale is 30% ;
3, peak, cereal, at ordinary times electrovalency is 1.03, 0.62, 0.28 yuan / KWh, poor range of peak cereal price is 61% .
Industry and commerce store can poor to peak cereal price sensitivity is extremely tall, enlarge peak cereal price to differ OK and effective exciting industry and commerce store can enthusiasm. We calculated industry and commerce store the sensitivity that can install machine investment and difference of peak cereal price to the unit, get the circumstance with other changeless condition falls, 1) cost of unit outfit opportunity drops 0.02 yuan / Wh, IRR promotion makes an appointment with 0.5pct; 2) difference of peak cereal price promotes 5pct, IRR promotion makes an appointment with 4.1pct. Peak cereal price promotes pair of industry and commerce poorly store can economy promotion is very remarkable. Difference of peak cereal price is decided by policy of electrovalency of each province time-sharing, because of this industry and commerce store can construction enthusiasm and policy are oriented and relevant degree tall, what we think to save time-sharing electrovalency mechanism as each is perfect (for instance of aiguille electrovalency execute) , peak cereal price is pulled poorly big, industry and commerce store can hopeful grows quickly.
"Report of partition carry out " side of hopeful facilitating user is shared store can mode, drive industry and commerce store can dimensions develops. "Report of partition carry out " namely distributed generate electricity project nearby trades, "Report of partition carry out " the user side that allows distributed energy project to sell electric power periphery directly through distribution network, this process became little electrified wire netting is participated in, reduced intermediate cost. 2021 since the end of the year, "Report of partition carry out " it is important to appear in the country for many times as high frequency vocabulary in policy document. Distributed power source " report of partition carry out " mode to user side, draw near industry and commerce or industrial garden area can consider as a whole, benefit at store can large change fall this; Square to investment for, large change user side store can hopeful extends commercial pattern, promote economy thereby; To electrified wire netting, large store can become the flexibility resource that can transfer likely. We think to did not come as " report of partition carry out " policy is ceaseless and perfect, progressively be born, industry and commerce store can hopeful dimensions develops.
Frequency modulation store can: Economy is not steady, the person that send first is benefited
Basis " green peace: Of flexibility of Chinese power system multivariate promotion method studies " , frequency modulation cent is 2 frequency modulation, frequency modulation and 3 frequency modulation. When electrified wire netting is pounded by bear or wave motion of new energy resources is pounded, electric frequency wave motion is bigger exceed range of safety of electrified wire netting, need frequency modulation to assist stability of help mains frequency at this moment. Frequency modulation resource can divide it is 3 kinds: One, 2, 3 times control reserves, part corresponding, 2, 3 frequency modulation.
1) reserve the capacity is to be in interference happening is enabled inside 5 seconds, its action is stable mains frequency, the time that start is 30 seconds. Frequency modulation gets timing system to undertake response through generation set commonly;
2) 2 times control reserves is to be in call together inside the 30 seconds after power changes first reserve provider, control area evenly, make mains frequency is returned nominal value, replace reserve, the time that start is 5 minutes. 2 times frequency modulation passes initiative hair report controls a system (AGC) undertake modulatory;
3) 3 times control reserves is in interference happening 15 minutes of defensive position are moved enable, replace control not completely 2 times to reserve, the time that start is 15 minutes. 3 times frequency modulation is aimed at change slow, have regular negative charge, coordinate the bear economy between each power plant to allocate.
Electrochemistry store performance advantage can be had in 2 frequency modulation, frequency modulation store can demand is capacious. Traditional fire report sends electric control automatically (AGC) instruction dogs performance is poor, precision of existence frequency modulation is low, retrorse adjust, answer time long, adjust rate is low problem. And electrochemistry store can have adjust rate is rapid, adjust precision is tall, noisy should time weak point, but two-way adjustment wait for an advantage, can satisfy frequency modulation completely 2 times the power change demand inside time scale, effect of 2 frequency modulation is distinct aircrew of excel water and electricity, natural gas aircrew, coal fired aircrew. Basis " batteries store can technical application " , fill continuously / discharge time is 15 minutes store can system, efficiency of its frequency modulation is 1.4 times of aircrew of water and electricity about, light 2.2 times of gas unit, 24 times of coal fired aircrew. And generate electricity as new energy resources constitute compared promotion, the wave motion of new energy resources increases to power system impact, what mains frequency changes is patient degree lower, mains frequency change is more frequent, accordingly we think electrochemistry store can frequency modulation demand is bigger.
Frequency modulation store can accrual basically comes from capacity compensation and compensation of course of development. Basis " independence is new-style store can power station price forms mechanism and cost dredge to optimize a method " , 1) the capacity compensates a basis store can compensation of norm of frequency modulation capacity, computational means is: R capacity compensates capacity of * of = AGC capacity to compensate the price. 2) course of development is compensated according to store can call course of development actually to be compensated in order to commercialize the means of contest price, computational means is: Market of frequency modulation of *P of index of function of frequency modulation of *K of course of development of frequency modulation of *MF of coefficient of fee of total service of market of frequency modulation of =M of compensation of R course of development gives clear value. Among them M1 is 0-2 commonly between, initial stage is chosen 1; K is worth the integrated index that is frequency modulation function, can tear apart answer time for precision of K1 adjustment rate, K2 adjustment, K3 3 index. The computational means of the K of each province and K1, K2, K3 is differ, among them means of a kind of computation is: This K1= stage rate of aircrew actual measurement / adjust on average what control all AGC unit inside area rate; K2=1- generates electricity unit answers defer time / 5min; K3=1- generates electricity unit adjustment error / generate electricity unit adjustment allows an error. K value is greater, performance is better, compensation of course of development is taller. According to regulation of southern electrified wire netting, k1 is highest for 5, k2, K3 is highest for 1, because this is integrated,index K is worth most greatly 3.
Group of igneous electric machinery is combined store can OK promote K the value considerably, get compensation of taller course of development. Of igneous report frequency modulation main short board it is to adjust rate, main advantage is craft maturity, adjust the capacity is mixed high cost is low, and electrochemistry store can performance advantage is clear, because this is both,the function that union can let igneous report frequency modulation promotes greatly, win compensation of taller course of development thereby. Install with the actual power station of Guangdong store can in light of the function index of around, installation store can hind adjust rate promotion comes 4.95 (+ 4.09) , answer speed promotion to come 0.98 (+ 0.16) , adjust precision promotion comes 0.97 (+ 0.6) , promotion of integral K value comes 2.96 (+ 2.23) , promotion effect is apparent.
Policy decides the capacity is compensated, market structure decides course of development is compensated. Capacity compensatory core is capacity compensation value, and capacity compensation value is decided by policy commonly, the strength of capacity compensation policy of each province is differ, among them the capacity compensation of Fujian is provincial 960 yuan / MW, guangdong is win the bid capacity *3.56 yuan / MW, because this capacity amends gains policy,disturb bigger. Core of compensatory of course of development depends on course of development giving clear price and K value, course of development gives clear value by frequency modulation market demand and participate in company decision, the numerical value that K is worth is decided in the relative position of market of whole frequency modulation by aircrew, the function of frequency modulation aircrew relatively other unit has jumped over the market, k value is greater. Because this course of development is compensated,decide basically by market structure. Frequency modulation store can earnings pattern whole is affected by external environment bigger, come to those who view policy, new entrant to disturb to affect older rate frequency modulation at present store can yield.
We are calculated get frequency modulation store can yield hopeful is achieved 8.2% . Model core is as follows suppose:
1, store can install machine dimensions to be 150MW/300MWh; Move every year 290 days; Operation time is 10 years.
2, frequency modulation store can performance demand is higher, store can unit investment is 2.3 yuan / Wh, own reserves scale is 30% .
3, accrual has capacity compensation and compensation of frequency modulation course of development, capacity compensation value is 960 yuan / MW* month, frequency modulation course of development gives clear price to be 9 yuan / MW, frequency modulation cycle is 5 minutes / second, k value is suppose 1.5.
Frequency modulation store can in-house yield is extremely high to sensitivity of price of K value, course of development, the person that send first is benefited, but the market is deduced easy enter " the Red Sea " . Our K value is set for 1.5, be in actually frequency modulation store can earlier, because former frequency modulation unit is igneous report more, electrochemistry store can frequency modulation basis the relative dominant position of function, k value is greater, income is accordingly higher. High income promotes market new entrant to increase, and new entrant on one hand depress price of frequency modulation course, raised integral performance center on the other hand, k value falls subsequently, narrate Guangdong some fire than as above store promotion of value of the K in frequency modulation comes 2.96 be located in industry front row, but Guangdong fire store the relative position of the function of frequency modulation project is met as other frequency modulation store can be built in great quantities and drop, namely K value falls. Price of frequency modulation course of development and K value double fall will make frequency modulation store can earnings falls considerably, but already the project of mount a horse won't stop to move, final whole market will turn from high income for small profit " the Red Sea " . Generally speaking, the open entrant of new market is less, electrochemistry store can or fire store adjustment function photograph is taller to the position, income of compensation of the person that send first is more, income is higher.
Regular form builds frequency modulation market to still be not perfected, pay close attention to relevant policy be born. Economy is calculated reach sensitivity to analyse a result to show frequency modulation market is not stable, market regulation needs to be perfected further. Guangdong serves as the province that develops frequency modulation market the earliest, market of compensation of annual course of development is experienced " switchback " type curve, 2019-2020 days all compensates amplitude to be close to turn over times, subsequently Guangdong calculated K estimation means instead K to be worth radical sign 2021, change function effect infirmly, control market of frequency modulation overheat, value of K of integral performance index will open cube 2022, change function effect infirmly further. We think K value is affected in economy business accounting bigger, electrochemistry store can or fire store adjustment has better function index, cause earlier project profit taller, thereby new enter a business ceaseless grow in quantity, resource of market frequency modulation spills over, changing K to be worth an influence infirmly basically is to prevent the market not to have foreword dilate. At present market regulation still is built in compose in, means of computation of attention function index, market goes the policy of clear regulation and other income respect to come on stage.
Frequency modulation market is in initial stage, new market is progressively open. Store can the traditional advantage area of frequency modulation market is Guangdong, Shanxi, Beijing and other places of ferry the Tang Dynasty, Meng Xi, and had in Guangdong only 2021 add the frequency modulation that join movement newly store can the project appears, more project is build in new province. According to store can with power market count, 2021, add an item newly (program, construction, join movement) cover the 15 provinces city such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, involve nearly 40 items. Frequency modulation market progressively open, new market initial stage enters a business general not much, electrochemistry store can K value and value giving Qing Dynasty is relative taller, income is accordingly higher. New market is progressively open, prospect of frequency modulation market is capacious.
Independent store can: Earnings pattern diversity, investment enthusiasm increases
Policy raises the price of the commodities ceaselessly independent store can, commercial pattern is being walked out of. On integral direction, relevant policy promotes independence ceaselessly store can walk out of commercial pattern, put forward project of new energy resources to be able to rent independence for instance store can capacity, stimulative independence store can participate in power market to trade, play moves the function such as peak frequency modulation. From the point of the trend, perfect power market system, stimulative independence store can participating in power market over-the-counter trading is policy attention key. Additional, each province tries to increase independence ceaselessly store can accrual channel, for instance Shanxi can inspect does print and distribute " Shanxi electric power frequency modulation market trades executive detailed rules (try out) " express to rise from July 1, 2022, formal open electric power frequency modulation market, independent store can the power station can sign partial capacity and scene company about, odd part returns OK and independent status to share frequency modulation market, increase independence effectively store can utilization rate.
Independent store can go up receive electrified wire netting is received below power source, earnings pattern is rich. Independent store just can invest operation by investment, construction scale is average bigger, earnings pattern is relatively rich: 1) independent store can OK rent partial capacity side of new energy resources, make project of new energy resources satisfies policy to match store requirement; 2) independent store can OK the frequency modulation moving a peak that coordinates side of electrified wire netting attempers, get compensation income; 3) independent store can OK cooperate with traditional unit, namely fire store adjustment, increase performance of traditional unit frequency modulation, get auxiliary service income; 4) independent store can OK participate in power spot market to cover interest, can obtain capacity electrovalency to compensate accrual in partial province.
Become independent at present store the earnings pattern that already can execute is: The capacity is rented + power spot market + capacity electrovalency compensation; Or the capacity is rented + tone peak assists a service; Or the capacity is rented + frequency modulation serves. Partial province is independent store can project gain model is built basically already, shandong is independent store can the commercial pattern of the power station is relatively clear, income source basically rents compensation of electrovalency of spot market of charge, power, capacity to wait for the capacity; Ningxia is independent store can the profit pattern of the power station with " Chu Nengrong quantity is rented + tone peak assists a service " income is given priority to; Shanxi puts forward independence store can the power station can make an appointment with partial capacity and scene industry tack, odd part can be a system to offer frequency modulation to assist a service through the form of market contest price.
We are calculated gain independence store can yield 6.7% . Model core is as follows suppose:
1, store can install machine dimensions to be 200MW/400MWh; Move every year 330 days; Operation time is 15 years.
2, independent store can performance demand is higher, store can unit investment is 2 yuan / Wh, own reserves scale is 30% .
3, accrual has the capacity is rented and move peak service.
Capacity compensation value is saved each differ, among them Henan is 260 yuan / KW · year, shandong province rents charge to be 350 yuan / KW · year, hunan project can grind calculate hypothesis to be 470 yuan / KW · year. Our neutral is 330 yuan suppose / KW · year, the size scale that rent is 80% .
Store can move a peak to serve the price usually 0.2-0.6 yuan / KWH, ningxia store can pilot can achieve 0.8 yuan / Kwh. We move a peak to serve compensation to be 0.5 yuan suppose / KWh, move peak frequency every year to be 300 times.
Independent store can in-house yield installs machine investment, capacity to rent peak of the price, attune to serve price sensitivity to the unit taller. We are calculated get, investment of unit outfit machine drops 0.1 yuan / Wh, in-house yield increases make an appointment with 4pct; Price of the service that move a peak rises 0.05 yuan / KWh, IRR promotion makes an appointment with 4pct; The size price that rent promotes 30 yuan / KW* year, IRR promotion makes an appointment with 3pct. We think to become independent at present store already can have profit, and rent the province with higher price to moving a peak to serve the price and capacity partly, independent store can yield calculates a result than us taller. Additional, independent store can promote increasingly in the position of power system, policy is being explored ceaselessly to earnings pattern reach perfect, independent store can yield future limit to good.
Independent store can invest enthusiasm to promote significantly, independent store can whole is large change development. In light of installation amount: Add newly 2021 program and in build large store can the project rises considerably, china of 10MW above project adds dimensions of machine of the outfit that join movement newly to be 1.9GW only, and add newly in build the outfit machine dimensions with the program to achieve 23.2GW; 50MW above project, add 0.8GW of machine of general assembly of the project that join movement newly, and add newly in build / machine of program project general assembly is 20.3GW; 100MW above project, add newly cast carry to be 0.74GW, add newly in build it is 15.8GW with program project; And large store can outfit machine appears on the stage again rank, the program was in 2021 build 500MW above project 5, aggregate 5.6GW. Project in light of number: The project is occupied under 10MW than decreasing, add newly 2021 cast carry to be 276, and the program is 186 only. 10MW above project adds program project newly to achieve 304.
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