China store can net dispatch: System of our country power is giving priority to the transition of new-style power system of body in Xiang Yixin the sources of energy, store can serve as adjust neatly power source, it is compose build new-style power system " neck " .
But, do not fall to rise instead as price of battery of near future lithium, lithium report Chu Nengcheng this tall look forward to, other technology course still does not have together with catholicity, new-style store can commercialize a mechanism to still be not perfected, store can invest enthusiasm to be being perplexed.
For this, new-style Chu Nengru wheres in policy driving force of revolution, capture a title more quickly, particularly pressing.
Cost tall look forward to, aggravate store can popularize difficulty
Cost (sexual price is compared) it is to restrict store the chief factor that can popularize, especially lithium battery serves as what provide flexibility most store can tool, near future cost does not fall to rise instead, aggravate store the difficulty that can popularize.
Since last year, suffer price of material of upriver lithium battery to rise considerably, lithium battery price promotes considerably, chu Nengpu alls over price of used battery of lithium of iron of quadrate phosphoric acid already from last year 0.6 yuan are made an appointment with in year / Wh (do not contain tax) rise to make an appointment with 0.9 yuan to the near future / Wh, rise about 0.3 yuan / Wh, go up about 50% .
In addition, apply to large store can tall Ah square model phosphoric acid Tie Li is produced more can nervous, the price rises more apparent.
Be in store can market end, 2021 domestic lithium report store can average price level arranges the project 1.5 yuan / Wh, this year part store can project quote achieves 1.7 yuan / Wh.
More austere is, lithium battery price suffers not only store can demand influence, and the effect that demand of car of new energy resources still suffers on older rate, in the whole world permeability of car of new energy resources reachs the whole world quickly store can below the double effect that demand accelerates, lithium battery price restricts setting to fall in resource of upriver lithium salt, short-term value hard fall after a rise.
In bureau of national energy resources " " 945 " new-style store can develop executive plan " in, anticipate 2025, electrochemistry store can systematic cost reduces 30% above, look not hopeful.
Store can be manufacturing data, current economy is insufficient
Store can regard production as the data, economy (investment return rate) the main factor that is influence promotion. Nobody buys sheet, how bang the drum for sb, of no help.
Store can economy, basically reflect at 2 o'clock:
It is initiative investment cost, to lithium report store can, the key is lithium battery price, lithium electrovalency standard is at present high look forward to, pounded directly store can the economy of the project;
2 it is lifecycle use frequency second, depend on on one hand oneself circulation time and term of service, depend on on the other hand demand answers a circumstance or disappear accept ability, at present still diseased commercialize a mechanism, to store can project future accrual (cash flows) increased uncertainty, also pounded directly store can the economy of the project.
Two factors are very main, also be computational investment return rate (IRR) crucial, especially easy at 2 o'clock by oversight, regard production as the data, unlike consumable, only in use ability creates value, ability creates cash to flow into, use frequency or amount are more, economy is better. Conversely, if unused or disappear accept is insufficient, economy is poorer.
Current, store can be faced with already commercialize the problem with diseased mechanism, still face real cost pressure problem, pull directly low store can economy. This also is why current store can the prime cause with project investment not tall enthusiasm.
To cost of dredge of new energy resources, it is the road of broken problem
Store can serve as independent project, it is under the double pressure of mechanism and cost, at present economy still is not worth or lack invests appeal.
But, enter par period as wind report and smooth hot season, end in the sources of energy the macroscopical setting of cost of small fund of pole of look forward to falls especially, itself of project of new energy resources has had independent economy, and make sweet bun.
A lot of places, project of new energy resources has become an industry to enrol protection of business, zoology, countryside to revitalize and even store can the important chip of the project, scramble for sth.
It is with smooth hot season exemple, even if is in at present package rises in price go to 2 yuan / below the circumstance of W, project of smooth hot season still presents positive state.
And just of new energy resources needs store can, this is decided by the congenital limitation of new energy resources. Not store can, wind report and smooth hot season face the problem of disappear accept. And, power source side store can just also is store the can mainest market.
Accordingly, "Wind / smooth - store " unifinication, the inevitable trend that is the new-style power system that gives priority to body with new energy resources, store the premise that also can have cost of dredge of Xiang Xinneng source and passageway.
Change character, namely with having socioeconomic wind report or project of smooth hot season more, will offset economy is poorer new-style store can, let both bale have economy. This kind of packer is made, the compulsive option of since wind report and smooth hot season, also be best option, who calls new energy resources congenital inadequacy?
More important is, although Chu Nengcheng this tall look forward to, especially lithium report store can, but the technical cost of new energy resources still has clear fall however space.
Future, the technical cost of new energy resources drops, the yield that raises project of new energy resources very hard again. As the fall of cost of technology of new energy resources, form a complete set store can wait for blame technology cost to will rise gradually, in order to increases industry of etc of ability of accept of the stability of new energy resources, disappear or macroscopical liability.
For instance, at present cost of component of smooth hot season makes an appointment with 2 yuan / W, prospective hopeful reduces 1.5 yuan / W is the following, only made of baked clay cost drops the space exceeds 0.5 yuan, changeover efficiency still is in pool of this dispatches from foreign news agency to promote ceaselessly.
With 100MW light volt project is exemple, if cost of system of smooth hot season drops 0.5 yuan / W, cost is managing 50 million yuan. According to store can match rate 10% , store can when 2 hours long, configure suppose store can 20MWh. Guang Fucheng drops originally space, the Chu Nengcheng that can assume is 2.5 yuan originally / Wh, and at present Chu Nengcheng is 1.7 yuan about originally / Wh.
Visible, rely on cost of smooth hot season drop, can support form a complete set store can reach potential cost to rise, and have certain space and flexibility. This also will become the future that prop up store can develop the important step that reachs potential economy improvement.
Actually, in bureau of national energy resources " " 945 " new-style store can develop executive plan " in, also emphasize particularly, "Reasonable dredge is new-style Chu Nengcheng this " , among them first step is increased namely " new energy resources + store can " supportive strength.
Photograph comparing is mixed at side of electrified wire netting user side, side of new energy resources store below the setting that can grow quickly in machine of outfit of new energy resources, store can demand is rigidder and rigidder, and the cost of new energy resources that can expect drops reach efficiency promotion, also enough actual strength props up cost tall look forward to store can form a complete set, and side of electrified wire netting and user side lack such cost dredge qualification.
Change character, be in " new energy resources + store can " in setting, store can have clear and feasible cost dredge way, chu Nengcheng this tall look forward to, fortunately " ally " new energy resources still has farther cost to drop space, both sides is formed the strongest " allied " , each takes what he needs, spend Chu Nengchu hand in hand period commercialize and dimensions changes promotion level.
Current, city of a lot of provinces begins form a complete set of compulsive requirement new energy resources store can, but commercialize a mechanism to still be not perfected, utilization rate was not reflected, do not want a Chu Nenglun to be a vase that strives for project of new energy resources or pass by cost, this is gone against already store can development, more the development that goes against prospective new energy resources, both sides is long-term strategy ally, is not short-term profit drift along.
So, we also need not excessive concern store can direct cost issue, have nothing to do lithium ion or sodium ion, short-term also improve hard, at present the key is get through " new energy resources + store can " commercialize mechanism problem, through " big move of heaven and earth moves " the cost dredge of type will be solved secondhand store can cost issue, such ability let store can faster promotion leaves come.UZ Energy energy storage company energy storage companies