Current, the smooth hot season of many province city of our country or wind cable project had asked configuration is proper proportional store can, "New energy resources + store can " mode, eventually 1000 breathe out 10 thousand call out only then come out.

Many friends ask me, store can after all economy?

Actually, store can economy, get attention fully all the time, also suffer doubt fully. Nowadays, produce as lithium report can increase ceaselessly, the ceaseless promotion of lithium electricity efficiency, drop of lithium report cost ceaselessly, lithium report store can economy also is reflected gradually really, store can the industry is being greeted " par " the dot when the key.

So, lithium report store can how should be economy evaluated? Here tries to analyse from a few angle.

01, Complete lifecycle angle

With 1MW/2MWh store can outfit machine undertakes calculating, use match new energy resources to generate electricity quite side store can Tie Li of quadrate phosphoric acid, at present systematic unit cost makes an appointment with 1.5 yuan / Wh, systematic totle drilling cost is 3 million yuan about, the circular time that has competition ability at present can be achieved 6000 times, average efficiency 90% .

Accordingly, the total electricenergy production of complete lifecycle is 1080KWh, the cost per kilowatt hour of the electricity generated by WECS of convert is 0.28 yuan / KWh, online electrovalency of referenced light bend over 0.49 yuan / KWh, had had certain competition ability. If systematic unit cost reduces 1.2 yuan / Wh, criterion economy will be stronger.

The uncertainty that exists among this is, circular time 6000, if everyday, annual 360 days, cycle of run makes an appointment with 17 years, the average efficiency of use later period may be compared low, can reduce its economy then. But if some apply setting to be able to use frequency everyday second increase, use a frequency on average to arrive 2 times everyday for instance, so cycle of run reduces the left and right sides.

Anyhow, regard production as the data, should raise its as far as possible only the use frequency inside optimal operating period second, its economy is better, conversely economy is poorer.

Because electric cost still is in lithium to drop ceaselessly, lithium electricity efficiency still is rising ceaselessly. Predict 2025, systematic cost predicts to be able to reduce 1 yuan / Wh, circular number can rise, the economy of complete lifecycle when those will be more apparent.

Of course, as low cost light volt generates electricity proportional increase, electric power cost also can compare whole to drop further currently, and low cost store can large-scale use, same meeting reduces cost of integral electric power further, namely " new energy resources + store can " drop to electric power cost form is geminate drive again.

Between practice, the operation cycle of power station of a smooth hot season is 20 years, current report of a lithium store can use cycle makes an appointment with 10 years, the later period in may considering to be in because of power station of this one smooth hot season is additional store can install machine, it is especially in the process that lithium report cost drops ceaselessly and lithium electricity efficiency improves ceaselessly, trends is evaluated store can economy also has very great sense.

02, The angle of for private use of memory of more than report

More than report stores, be store can a main business applies setting, basically be aimed at distributed smooth hot season, especially door consumed bend over + store can. Because be more than report, can assume its obtain cost so for 0.

After more than report stores, have two kinds of use cases, corresponding and different economy: It is to put for private use oneself, electrovalency is opposite taller; 2 it is to be put oneself get online, electrovalency is relatively inferior.

Same with 1MW/2MWh store can the system is exemple, cost of hypothesis system unit is 1.5 yuan / Wh, systematic totle drilling cost is 3 million yuan. After more than report stores, put for private use oneself, hypothesis electrovalency is 0.9 yuan / KWh, investment pay back period is 5.1 years, the IRR of complete lifecycle is 18.3% , economy is better. If systematic cost is lower, or social electrovalency more taller, economy will be better.

Visible, more than report stores the economy of for private use has been compared, so of this domain commercialize faster, more mature also. This also is why Euramerican area " distributed smooth hot season + store can " a reason that can take the lead in popularizing.

Of course, like the analysis is being narrated before resembling, the society can drop gradually with electric cost, cannot be all the time 0.9 yuan / KWh, real yield of future can be reduced somewhat, but be in for certain reasonable range above.

03, The angle that memory of more than report gets online

After more than report stores, use besides oneself, also can get online even entirely partly. It is opposite for private use only, the profit of online electrovalency will be smaller, this follows distributed smooth hot season initiative for private use + the logic that more than report gets online is same.

Same with 1MW/2MWh store can the system is exemple, hypothesis online electrovalency is 0.49 yuan / KWh, in unit system cost 1.5 yuan / below the circumstance of Wh, investment pay back period is 9.4 years, the IRR of complete lifecycle is only 7.5% . Visible, be in without the government store can below the circumstance of allowance, current economy is poorer. This also is why home generates electricity side store can feed rate is slower, but had been in tend the brim of rationality.

So, if store can the system uses memory of Yu Yu report to get online merely, its economy is insufficient still, unless offer certain subsidy. At present province of our country part to generating electricity side store can the project still has certain allowance really.

But, if store can systematic unit cost from 1.5 yuan / Wh drops 1.2 yuan / Wh, invest pay back period to reduce for 6.3 years, the IRR of complete lifecycle rises for 14.2% , will have certain economy.

Drop of cost quickly as lithium report, the mode that believes memory of more than report gets online, will have large-scale all-pervading economy very quickly, be in new energy resources to generate electricity at present side store can economy tends reasonable critical point, this also is why city of a lot of provinces began the near future to increase side of new energy resources in succession store can the strength of the project, supplier of electricity of lithium of partial low cost had had definite competitive advantage probably.

04, Cut a peak to fill the angle of cereal

Talk about store can when, an application angle that often alludes, namely " cut a peak to fill cereal " , store when electrovalency is inferior, get online when electrovalency is taller, earn price difference next.

Here is same with 1MW/2MWh store can the system is exemple, charge suppose electrovalency is 0.49 yuan / KWh, discharge electrovalency is 1 yuan / KWh. In unit system cost 1.5 yuan / below the circumstance of Wh, investment pay back period is 9.1 years, the IRR of complete lifecycle is 8.1% . If unit system cost drops,reach 1.2 yuan / Wh, investment pay back period is 6.1 years, the IRR of complete lifecycle is 15% , will have certain economy.

Visible, "Cut a peak to fill cereal " commercial pattern, economy is not at present apparent still, but if peak cereal electrovalency is poor taller, economy probably stronger. Same, drop of cost ceaselessly as lithium report, this mode also can greet spring sooner or later.

05, The angle of frequency modulation

The point of view of frequency modulation is more professional, but main train of thought is to press use circumstance to collect fees, depend on the demand situation of exchange frequency.

This kind of mode is in home already not unfamiliar, but occupy because of report of our country fire taller, the frequency modulation capability of igneous report is stronger, because this is right the demand of frequency modulation and frequency are not apparent.

contrast, because Euramerican power structure follows our country to differ, new energy resources is occupied than already taller, and igneous report is occupied lower, because this is right store can frequency modulation demand is higher, store can economy is better because of this.

2017, tesla is south Australia bay deploy 100MW/129MWh store can system, cost 91 million bay yuan (add up to) of 450 million RMB about, this project is in earn peak cereal while unit price is poor, still offer frequency modulation to assist a service for electrified wire netting. Australian electrified wire netting uses mechanism of a market to answer the generation set with rapid rate to purchase frequency to dominate auxiliary service (FCAS) , the price answers the quote of time and market participator to decide immediately according to what differ. 2018 is a project the first year when move, whole store can systematic battalion closed to obtain 29 million bay money, corresponding project reclaims periodic only 3 years.

Store setting can apply in the part, had had certain economy. Setting applies in the part, drop of cost ceaselessly as lithium report or of lithium electricity efficiency rise ceaselessly, economy also is in reflect gradually. Anyhow, lithium report store can economy is in tend reasonable critical point.

The main purpose of the article is the framework that provides an analysis, analytic model also is cut quite, not mature all sorts of likelihoods circumstance, the circumstance of different manufacturer, different area meets relevant data basis differ somewhat. Insufficient place, ask much communication.

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