Electrochemistry store can of commercial pattern tired with investment the risk is analysed

  Industry news     |      2023-02-02 16:54

China store can net dispatch: Amount to the goal that peak, carbon neutralizes to realize carbon, the new energy resources such as report of wind of more extensive development, smooth hot season generates electricity, already was acknowledge of whole society place. Although " one wool money for a time report " catchword has cried, but the development of new energy resources is by no means level road. Generate electricity in new energy resources scale is inferior, electrified wire netting of have the aid of has shift energy-saving force, the par of cost of oneself of power station of pure consideration new energy resources is becoming reality, but as increase of net capacity quickly and groovy power source is added fast suddenly delay, tone peak abundant spends electrified wire netting to drop ceaselessly, new energy resources develops to already became need source net to carry on one's shoulder or back further store the systematization problem of linkage, new energy resources generates electricity cost also should consider the full requirements cost such as adjustment of electrified wire netting.

Current, peak respect is moved in new energy resources, electrochemistry store can wide suffer take seriously, "New energy resources + store can " the ultimate weapon that makes progress of new energy resources it seems that, character says surely store can below the environment, also caused independence store can power station and scene store development upsurge of the system. This piece sincerely from electrochemistry store can cost, adjust pattern of value, trade and its investment risk set out, discuss electrochemistry store can develop a problem.


Electrochemistry store can develop the current situation

Graph 1 electrochemistry store can add fast condition (unit: MW)

As a result of admirable adjustment function, decorate wait for character neatly, as the technology rapid development and cost drop ceaselessly, electrochemistry store can be gifted the important task of peak of attune of prospective electrified wire netting. Especially 2018 side of electrified wire netting store can develop upsurge, drive electrochemistry Chu Nengrong quantity turns over times above grow, store can develop spring to appear to come. But do not enter originally as Chu Nengcheng lose distribution value, by drive of side of electrified wire netting store can orgiastic rapid and refluent, however when those store the consensus that can develop has been formed, the adjustment of as a result 2019 period, electrochemistry store can integral increment (absolute value) inferior slightly only 2018, wait to power source side, user side at the same time more commercialized way develops, frequency modulation service, new energy resources moves jointly, cereal of user side peak covers a variety of operation pattern such as benefit more general.

2020, it is good that the development of new energy resources receives multinomial and major benefit, especially carbon neutralizes a goal put forward, the most important instrument that the development of report of smooth hot season, wind makes implementation carbon counteract, drive another when electrochemistry Chu Nengcheng runs paralell to generate electricity with new energy resources important circuit, each large center look forward to, appear on the market company will store the business point of growth with can serve as the most significant. About encouraging store the policy that can develop warms up ceaselessly, each province also publishs policy to cooperate, anhui, Hubei, Shanxi, inside the province the sources of energy such as unconscious, Hunan is in charge of a branch or power company asks configuration of power station of new energy resources is proper proportional store can, everything makes clear electrochemistry store can erupt period will come.


Store can commercial pattern predicament

Fall in the big environment that takes seriously generally however, store the commercial logic of can extensive development is unsharpness still, a lot of independence store can the project lives hard, and scene store because bind new energy resources to just have profit constrainedly together,waiting for demonstrative project also is.

(one) new energy resources + store can

Side of electrified wire netting store can commercial logic depends on matching electrovalency dredge to come through be defeated user side, but came on stage 2019 " lose way of careful of inspect of distribution price cost " , came on stage 2020 " provincial electrified wire netting is defeated by measure of distribution price price " , all set electrochemistry clearly store can not succeed in one's scheme is entered after be defeated by distribution price cost, this mode stops abruptly.

Subsequently store can develop train of thought the means of apt quota, the new energy company such as the energy director branch of many provinces or smooth hot season of power company demand (point to investment here and the enterprise of project of hold wind report, smooth hot season) configuration is proper proportional store can. Cursory consideration, if power station of smooth hot season according to 20% power / means of 2 hours is configured store can, consideration depreciation, safeguard with capital cost, cost per kilowatt hour of the electricity generated by WECS will increase smooth hot season 0.09-0.1 yuan money, the primary level of par achieves in new energy resources, it is a serious blow to relevant enterprise undoubtedly.

Be passed simply and the means that the net asks will store it is certain to can develop cost to transfer the existence on body of new energy company controversy. According to " whose accrual, who pays fee " principle, assume by new energy company store the cost that can grow has its reason it seems that, but on one hand the low carbon benefit that new energy resources expands is shared by whole society, in carbolic market diseased circumstance falls, with respect to the requirement proper motion of new energy company bears the cost that move a peak, do not accord with the development direction that encourages green the sources of energy it seems that; On the other hand, long lack is enough when the Chu Nengrong of compulsive configuration measures scale and outfit machine according to, if must new energy company bears the cost that move a peak, enterprise oneself has a choice other the right that replaces method, the simplest is partial period of time chooses to abandon report. Actually, will store can install machine quota to generate electricity as new energy resources project and net condition, also assure hard store can construction quality, sequel is supervised move to be accomplished harder, achieve the result that moves a peak finally hard.

(2) power station of independent frequency modulation

Frequency modulation service is electrochemistry store can use more successful field. Each area frequency modulation assists a service to superintend committee generally according to raw electric power " two detailed rules " undertake compensating, as the progress that electric power commercializes, partial province begins to use the quote that commercializes means to undertake frequency modulation assists a service and charge share. Current, the market already entered the frequency modulation of the province such as Shandong, Shanxi, Fujian, Guangdong to move or try moving phase.

The electrochemistry that holds certain size is added in igneous power plant store can equipment, can promote considerably adjust integratedly function index Kp (Kp is to measure adjust rate, adjust time and adjust the integrated index of precision) , make aircrew assigns more frequency modulation tasks. It is with Shanxi exemple, serve to encourage a power plant to participate in frequency modulation, shanxi saves frequency modulation price to be fixed cost before 2018: 15 yuan / MW, namely *Kp*15 of power of task of frequency modulation of = of frequency modulation compensation yuan, according to actual condition, add outfit store can hind average of Kp of group of igneous electric machinery comes by 2.8 or so promotion 4.6. In the meantime, participate in frequency modulation service, need to undertake on power only fast but relatively short-term is answered, a need grows 0.5 hours when general configuration, reduced electrochemistry store can invest, inchoate enter frequency modulation field store can the power station can call in 2 or so years cost.

Electrochemistry store can participate in frequency modulation, have better economy currently, but the uncertainty with prospective earnings bigger presence. Market of auxiliary service of current our country is based on " two detailed rules " requirement, fund of auxiliary service compensation basically comes from at generating electricity company share, generating electricity is between the enterprise 0 with the relation, and basis before experience assists service market dimensions every year to fluctuate in 15 billion yuan, and portion of AGC frequency modulation is adjacent 30% , also namely 4.5 billion yuan or so. As frequency modulation market attention is spent increase, more main body is joined, market general is fast and saturated, compensate mark brigadier quickness to reduce. Be based on this just about, shanxi was saved in October 2017 can inspect does release " frequency modulation of Shanxi electric power assists detailed rules of service market operation " , market of Shanxi frequency modulation converted 2018 contest price frequency modulation is regular, frequency modulation served 2018 declare the price to be 12-20 yuan / MW, to the end of the year, quote limits is adjusted for 5-10 yuan / MW, the accrual that frequency modulation serves will be reduced greatly. And Guangdong province also issued new policy 2020, level of subsidy of frequency modulation mileage fell 2021 more than 40% , fell 2022 more than 50% .

Store can the market size of frequency modulation is finite. As new energy resources proportional increase, think generally to increase as frequency modulation pressure, the space that frequency modulation serves also can increase. The deviation of mains frequency is to generate electricity the result that as lopsided as bear quantity creates, frequency modulation and tone peak service are the deviation that makes up for have rendered great service substantially, its adjust direction is consistent. Relevant portion is to pass computational method to undertake segmentation actually, its are both and OK and course, the share of frequency modulation market of reason northeast, southern electrified wire netting is dinky. Below the big environment that in our country control electrovalency rises, frequency modulation service is unlikely that dredge arrives user side, if cannot be broken through " two detailed rules " generate electricity certainly below frame between the enterprise " 0 with game " , its space just still is in existing electrovalency cut portion, occupy in cost of charge of electricity of whole whole society than won't rising apparently. Additional, new energy resources generates electricity to electrified wire netting disturb plan enter the category that move a peak more reasonable, also facilitate have the service that move a peak and spot market and course. The vacuum of market of prospective frequency modulation is so possible too won't hopeful.

Consider afore-mentioned factors, store can of frequency modulation power station enter newly bureau person will face bigger risk, below the case that presents saturation in the market, new enter and already answered the power station that controls cost meeting apt signs up for low, produce price trample extremely easily, cause new power station to invest to reclaim hard.

(3) difference of peak cereal price covers interest

The service that move a peak is store the can most extensive application field, but because be passed in user side only currently,differentiate the value of service of means exchange peak of peak cereal electrovalency undertakes admissive, outside participating in the service that move a peak to be able to achieve earnings except the province that publishs the quotation that move a peak partly, more general is par of cereal of user side peak, peak difference covers interest.

Cover benefit to be with cereal of user side peak exemple, if use cell of lithium of phosphoric acid iron, according to current investment cost and technical condition, use everyday two fill two put operation pattern, date of departure of 8 years of carry, peak cereal price is poor + peak par difference achieves 1.3-1.4 yuan below the circumstance, can achieve inferior earnings only. Drop of electrovalency ceaselessly as general industry and commerce, current whole nation only the few number such as Beijing develops the user of general industry and commerce of the area, can begin Chu Nengfeng cereal to cover benefit professional work, the dilate of this business relies on electrochemistry Chu Nengcheng this drop to promote with function.


Electrochemistry store can investment risk

Store can develop difficult problem, still need to solve its to serve value to whether be more than the problem of cost, and in the final analysis of predicament of its trade pattern should build Chu Nengcheng namely this market dredge mechanism, discover by the market store the price that can serve, serve as with this store can the fundamental condition of admittance. But, even if falls in perfect market condition, store can power station investor still must mature undermentioned risk:

(one) moving strategy is more complex

Be in currently when evaluating frequency modulation power station and accrual of the power station that move a peak, standard of frequency modulation compensation and poor level of peak cereal price consult policy gives standard set, the price level that achieves namely is a fixed cost, did not build generally in market mechanism, the person that the power station is accepted as the price is reasonable, the moving strategy of the power station is relatively simple also, cover benefit to be with peak cereal exemple undertake full discharging according to peak cereal period of time only can, its capacity configuration and accrual are calculated simpler.

But fall in perfect market condition, price of tone peak, frequency modulation balances a decision by supply and demand, namely the lopsided quantity of power of electrified wire netting decided price level, the price is in constant change process in. To single power station, the power source of entire network, bear is fluctuant, and the other adjustment that what hide resource information masters hard, at the same time as different as normal commodity market is, level of the lopsided quantity of electrified wire netting, price is to be delivered for an instant almost, each store can main body balances a circumstance to do rich play chess in what follow whole electrified wire netting in real time, its invest decision-making, quote strategy and fill discharge strategy more will complex.

(2) peak cereal period of time and price difference are fluctuant bigger

Graph 2 net negative charge " duck curve " signal origin: CAISO

Increase considerably as permeability of smooth hot season, consider the duck after smooth hot season generates electricity curve, prospective electrovalency may present the case with a low by day, high night, and wind report generates electricity general lesser by day, bigger in the evening, alleviate somewhat to duck curve. Store can the power station gains profit strategy is: New energy resources sends period of time of disappear accept difficulty greatly, store low report, in small hair of new energy resources groovy power source can't prop up the period of time of bear of electrified wire netting to release, obtain taller electrovalency. Current peak cereal, peak is smooth two fill the two limit that those who put have the aid of is electrovalency of cereal of user side peak, but bear curve of future and electrovalency curve are changed completely, the likelihood on electrovalency is a big peak a lot of small wave band comprise Gu Jia. Add the V2G of fictitious power plant, electric car effect that can replace the resource that move a peak, and seasonal element, curve of spot market electrovalency also will present characteristic of random sex, intermittence, the price that move a peak differs the space that cover interest to foretell hard, store can optimal when using, grow to also be put in uncertainty.

2019, pilot province enters 8 merchandise on hand such as Shanxi, Shandong, Guangdong try moving phase, only n of partial principal part, part and specific date move, the price and case of real current price appeared bigger random fluctuation a few days ago, but embryonic form sees at the beginning of the function that spot market regards the price as to discover a method, the difference of peak cereal price below spot market condition also sees clue, what can move a peak to serve price level as future is referenced. Omit a condition according to each, its price peak value (do not contain lose distribution value) fluctuate in 0.5 yuan commonly, lowermost value is 0 or adjacent 0, reflected our country to supply the current situation for be more than the electric power that seek, daily price difference is bigger and peak cereal occurrence period of time is disparate. In light of whole, difference of peak cereal price is in 0.3-0.5 yuan / KWh (like price of Shanxi peak cereal difference is in 0.3 yuan / KWh left and right sides, price of Shandong peak cereal is poor under 0.45 yuan / KWh) , considerably under system of price of current user side, a big peak cereal appears only commonly inside a day, in maximum price and retention period of lowest price period of time very short.

Predict " 955 " end, machine of machine of outfit of power source of compasses of power system middling, outfit of new energy resources, year peak load 3 person between relatively will adjacent, and after machine of outfit of groovy power source still is more than slightly both, the period of time that considers report of smooth hot season, wind is characteristic, the circumstance of supply exceeds demand of major while power in a year still exists, curve of spot market price still may retain afore-mentioned character. In under 0.5 yuan / the peak cereal difference of KWh and fill put a condition, cost of unit of caliber of electrochemistry Chu Nengquan at least under 800-900 yuan / the left and right sides when KWh, just have economic benefits. But even if is such, because period of time of electrovalency peak cereal is shorter and occurrence signal is not clear, bring about Chu Nengrong quantity to use inadequacy, accrual will sell at a discount greatly.

(3) the risk that can replace a product to bring

In power system, existence has aiguille in great quantities characteristic, adjustable flexibility resource. For instance, bear of air conditioning of period of time of summit of our country summer is highest more than 300 million kilowatt, only the adjustment that aggregate 1/3 can obtain 100 million kilowatt ability. Future is dynamoelectric automobile size is larger and larger, wait for a method with V2G through charging in order, also can provide the capacity moving a peak of one billion two hundred and fifteen million seven hundred and fifty-two thousand one hundred and ninety-two made of baked clay class for electrified wire netting. Below spot market condition, can disentomb effectively through electrovalency flexibility resource, promote groovy power source more effectively also to participate in tone peak at the same time, drive igneous report to undertake flexibility is transformed. The increment moving a peak that two overlay produce still is evaluated hard currently, but to spot market electrovalency difference has bigger inhibition.

Bear of consideration electrified wire netting has very strong aiguille character (annual bear exceeds peak load the period of time of 90% is occupied only 3% , center in minority burning hot or freezing day) , and new energy resources generates electricity exert oneself to also have apparent aiguille character, to overlay bear aiguille character and new energy resources generate electricity the demand moving a peak of aiguille character, its aiguille character will be more apparent. relatively the electrochemistry with larger investment moves peak power station, use the flexibility negative charge that has aiguille character likewise to adjust reversely will be opposite strong, it is the way moving a peak with limit optimal cost, be in so store below the case that can move a peak to exist to be able to replace a product more relatively, its competition ability needs to be based on many sided element to think carefully.

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